February 2010: stocks to watch

XNPT (Xenoport)

Current price: $18.16

PDUFA date of 2-09-2010 for drug to prevent Restless Leg Syndrome

CTIC (Cell Therapeutics)

Current price: $1.15

FDA Advisory Panel date of 2-10-2010 for pixantrone

CRXX (CombinatorX)

Current price: $.87

New PDUFA date 2-22-2010

Don't try to pick the winners

Have you ever watched "Deal or No Deal" and heard someone say "I came in with nothing, so I'm not loosing anything..." as they turn down $250,000 in the hopes of getting the $1,000,000 briefcase? My response is always... are you kidding me??? You are loosing something... how about $250,000! By pushing the button and accepting the deal they could walk away with a quarter of a million dollars more than they had before they came on the show. But instead they leave usually with almost nothing.

This is what happens so often with biotech stock trading. You buy the stock a couple of months before the PDUFA date, clinical trial data to be released, etc. and enjoy a nice 25, 50, 100% run-up. But instead of selling and realizing your gain you wait just to see bad data, or an approvable letter come out instead of the wonderful data, or approval you were so confident would be released. Granted sometimes you do hit it big and make A LOT of money... but most of the time all of your profit if not original investment simply disappears.

So a good strategy to try out (which I am trying to do myself) is to determine when the significant dates of small biotech companies are going to happen and get in and get out before the date occurs. Make your 25, 50, 100% profit and get out before the significant event occurs. You might miss out on some profit... but at least you'll be guaranteed the profit you already have.

So... the strategy is not to pick the winners but to get in and out of potential winners before they do or do not become winners (or losers). Hopefully our blog will help you do this. We will determine which stocks have an upcoming event and give insight onto which ones we think are good or not good buys.

-AG-

Follow us on twitter

Follow our tweets on twitter. Stay up to the minute on our analysis and breaking news. We tweeted live from the FDA advisory panel meeting today for Exalgo (CRXX drug).

http://twitter.com/biotechtrader

ONTY

Current-4 months: Two compounds, PX-478 and PX-866, have promising preclinical profiles and are both in Phase I trials, with data readouts in '09. Limited number of outstanding shares and small market cap + positive data could warrant a share price increase above their 52 week high of $7.77.

Sentiment: Buy @ $5.30; Strong buy @$5.05

PJP

December 2009: stocks to watch

MSHL http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mshl
Price: .825 (8-13-09)
52 wk range: .25 (3-10-09) to 3.32 (8-26-08)
Upcoming event: data analysis from Phase 3 trail set for 12-17-09
Thoughts: good buy, $25 million cash, $0 debt; far enough away (as of 8-2009) to get a good rise in price (AG)

November 2009: stocks to watch

NRIFF.PK http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nriff.pk
Price: .24 (8-12-09)
52 wk range: .064 (11-19-08) to .429 (7-23-09)
Upcoming event: PDUFA 11-4-09
Thoughts: good buy... PDUFA delayed to new november date (AG)


XNPT http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=xnpt
Price: 19.86 (8-12-09)
52 wk range: 13.36 (4-30-09) to 51.42 (8-15-08)
Upcoming event: PDUFA 11-09-09
Thoughts: maybe good buy (AG)


GENZ http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=genz
Price: 50.31 (8-12-09)
52 wk range: 47.09 (8-10-09) to 83.97 (8-15-08)
Upcoming event: PDUFA 11-14-09
Thoughts: big company, at 52 wk low, after 11-14-09 PDUFA it looks like they are also going to file an amendment to their BLA with a possible additional 4 month review time (AG)


CRXX http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=crxx
Price: 1.05 (8-12-09)
52 wk range: .25 (1-26-09) to 6.99 (9-29-08)
Upcoming event: PDUFA 11-22-09
Thoughts: good buy, way off its 52 wk high (AG)
Further analysis: CRXX merged with Neuromed (7-1-09), Neuromed has drug Exalgo (rights owned by Mallinckrodt) which is in FDA review with advisory panel 9-23-09 and PDUFA 11-22-09 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CombinatoRx-and-Neuromed-Sign-bw-2619505124.html?x=0&.v=1

October 2009: stocks to watch

OTC.BIEL: Bioelectronics http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BIEL.PK

52 wk: 0.01-0.12

current: 0.076

PDUFA Date: 10/15/09

"The analyst, Carrie Snyder, places a target price on the shares of between $0.30 and $0.50, should expected FDA clearances be granted" (BH)

ACOR: Acorda Therapeutics http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=acor

52 week: 14.42- 29.27

current: 23.77

FDA advisory committee meeting: 10-14-09

PDUFA: 10-22-09

September 2009: stocks to watch

CRXX: advisory panel 9-23-09; (see Nov. for PDUFA details)

ACHN http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=achn
Price: 1.99 (8-11-09)
52 wk range: .65 (12-31-08) to 3.00 (8-21-08)
Upcoming event: safety and tolerability data for Phase I HCV trail (late summer); efficacy data (winter 09)
Thoughts: Phase I too early, not a good buy (AG)


PARS.PK http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PARS.PK
Price: .46 (8-11-09)
52 wk range: .02 (3-20-09) to .48 (8-11-09)
Upcoming event: Results from Phase IIb trial expected Sept. 09
Thoughts: maybe good buy; already missed out on 2,000% in the last 3 months (AG)


ENDP http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=endp
Price: 21.06 (8-11-09)
52 wk range: 13.87 (10-10-08) to 26.14 (1-2-09)
Upcoming event: PDUFA 9-2-09
Thoughts: too big (AG)


SLXP http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=slxp
Price: 12.54 (8-11-09)
52 wk range: 5.07 (10-10-08) to 13.26 (7-26-09)
Upcoming event : PDUFA 9-11-09
Thoughts: too late? (AG)

Welcome to BiotechDayTrader

I thought this might be a good format for us be able to put our biotech stock analysis in one place for everyone to be able to refer back to.